Forecasting Leader, US Respiratory Inhaled
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Wilmington, DE 19806
At AstraZeneca, we’re not afraid to do things differently. We’re resetting expectations of what a bio-pharmaceutical company can be. This means we’re opening new ways to work, ground-breaking and cutting-edge methods and bringing unexpected teams together
AstraZeneca is organized around two core business units, BioPharmaceuticals (BBU) and Oncology. The BBU focuses on development and commercialization of AstraZeneca’s Respiratory, Cardiovascular, Metabolic, Renal, and Infectious Disease therapeutic areas.
Global Insights, Analytics & Commercial Excellence (GIACE) is a strategic function, critical for enabling success in the growth of the BBU business. Our ambition is to build an industry-leading organization, empowering our Commercial teams through the generation of compelling evidence and insights, while ensuring they have the tools and skills to deliver impactful launches that change the practice of medicine for the benefit of patients. Within GIACE, the Insights & Analytics function is organized across three teams and supports both the US and Global organizations: Respiratory Insights, CVRM Insights (Cardiovascular, Metabolic, Renal), and the Insights & Analytics Center of Excellence (CoE).
The aim of the Insights & Analytics Center of Excellence is to establish industry-leading capabilities across the core areas of analytics, forecasting, reporting, business planning, and insight capabilities. It will leverage, reapply, and advance best practices in capabilities and operations from Global and US more broadly across geographies. In the area of advanced analytics, the ambition is to accelerate the development and application of advanced analytic methodologies such as machine learning and artificial intelligence to solve business problems. The CoE also aims to scale and deploy these capabilities in a highly efficient manner so that continuous innovation can be pursued.
The Insight Teams and the CoE partner to drive portfolio and brand strategy and performance. Together we strive to uncover deep customer insights in order to drive improved decision-making and business impact. We are looking for leaders who have the passion to drive business results and bring innovation to what we do for greater impact.
The I&A Center of Excellence is responsible for Global and US across the BBU, and is organized around the following core capability areas:
+ Brand Analytics
+ Advanced Analytics, US and Global
+ Advanced Analytics, Other Markets & Data Management
+ Forecasting, Respiratory
+ Forecasting, CVRM
+ Business Planning & Capabilities
Candidate Focus and Challenge – Job Description
The Forecasting Manager is a critical business partner with the brand team, producting brand volume forecsatsts and consulting with the team on how to manage risks and opportunities for the business. As a Forecast Manager, you will have responsibllity for a brand/brands and play an integral role in understanding performance, setting expectations for performance, and guiding brand strategy. They will be responsible for implementing and ensuring consistent application of best practices across the organization drawing from inside and outside the industry, leading to objective forecasts supported by insight & analytics.
The Forecasting Manager will develop product-specific short-term and long-term forecasts models and maintain up-to-date forecast models, reflecting current data, information, assumptions; lead the forecasting and business planning processes and all associated work streams (sales bridges, ad hocs supporting Finance, etc.); Identify key business issues that impact short-term and long-range product and market forecasts; clearly and pro-actively surface these issues, incorporate the results of primary research into the forecast model(s) to reflect anticipated risks and opportunities on sales outlook, and define forecasting processes and build capabilities in forecasting for inline and late stage assets. In addition, you will have responsibility to develop forecasts for your focused therapeutic area using patient flow forecast models, patient based forecast models, and statistical trending and ensure alignment on forecast assumptions and other critical analytical assessments with business partners including Marketing, Sales, Managed Markets, Market Research, Global Marketing and Insight, Finance, and Sales Operations.
This role is reserved for someone with marketing and research experience who has deep forecasting and quantitative technical skills combined with superior communication skills. As such, those who will qualify for this position are both technically sound and have the ability to be a proactive internal consultant, adding value to AstraZeneca’s commercial organization beyond their analytical prowess through their understanding of secondary data, industry knowledge, and track record of innovative and impactful decision support.
+ Ensuring objectivity of brand/therapeutic area forecasts through establishing objectives aligned around forecast accuracy.
+ Recruiting, developing and retaining talent, and ensuring strong succession plan.
+ Developing brand volume forecasts, both short-term and long-term, to feed into strategic and operational planning processes.
+ Sensitivity analysis to assist in opportunity identification and risk management.
+ Partnership with Finance to understand gross-to-nets and pricing assumptions, and with Operations to translate brand volume forecasts into supply demand planning.
+ Proactive identification of portfolio and brand risks and opportunities, and strategies for how to address them to deliver business success.
+ Forecast and manage/interact with multiple countries during strategic planning process. Undertake strategic long-term brand and franchise forecasting and provide strategic perspective/guidance on portfolio and brand strategy, as well as new product introduction volume forecasting and guidance.
+ Develop a deep understanding of internal customers’ data and analytical needs focusing on the customer-facing model leadership
+ Champion the use of local customer insight in strategic and resourcing decisions across the business.
+ Access appropriate information via a variety of tools and sources
+ Summarize and present findings through various communication channels
+ Responsible for recruiting, training, managing, coaching and developing a team of forecasters
+ Capability in applying deeper technical skills and knowledge that is shared across the functional area (e.g., deep knowledge of key data sets, modeling capabilities, etc.)
+ Demonstrate a high level of understanding of the points of integration of our work and that of our colleagues.
+ Monitors the external environment to stay up to date on leading analytic capabilities, both within and outside of pharma, which can be applied within the organization
Candidate Knowledge, Skills and Experience
+ 4+ years of analytical experience, 3 years in Health Care Industry including experience in product forecasting. In-depth knowledge of forecasting techniques and use of different forecast models and approaches.
+ Experience in building, deploying, and embedding capabilities into an organization.
+ 3 years’ experience in US Pharma Industry, making decisions on major drivers of product success, advisin